The major benefit of scenario planning is to improve the quality of organisational thinking, which leads to better strategic decision making. It does this by building vivid stories about alternative futures that flow from a deep understanding of the uncertainties that are shaping our world and insights into their implications.
Scenarios are particularly helpful in the current environment of deep and rapid change brought about by revolutionary breakthroughs in genetics, robotics, artificial intelligence, the Internet, nanotechnology, globalisation and a host of new paradigms which impact on peoples’ attitudes and behaviours.
Our scenario building approach investigates major change factors, such as emergent and breakthrough technology, regulatory change and market forces and then develops scenario narratives by identifying the way key uncertainties interact in a systemic context.
Scenarios reveal a variety of surprise elements from outside an organisation's usual frame of reference, and also prompt us to think about known elements in a different way.
We can consider the unexpected consequences of identified trends, especially when taken in combination, the sequencing of anticipated events and areas of hidden risk. Once painted, the scenario landscape can be used to test the robustness of proposed strategies and policies, and to stimulate alternative approaches that would be more resilient to the future.
Through scenarios, organisations develop strategic approaches that support effective growth and change and make them more resilient.